Adjust the sliders to match your race. The model updates live. Every assumption is visible — change any of them. The methodology behind these calculations is in the model addendum.
This calculator implements the chain-of-loss model from The Last Mile Problem. All inputs are visible and adjustable. The unfavorable answer rate is the key unknown — it is the number a diagnostic produces for your specific candidate. Without it, the model produces a range; with it, the value at risk becomes a specific dollar figure for your race. Full methodology, input rationale, and sensitivity analysis: model addendum.
The author has a commercial interest in this subject. That interest is disclosed so you can evaluate the analysis in context. The model is structured to be stress-tested — adjust the inputs until it breaks, and see what happens.